alpine fault earthquake prediction

Ground motion simulations of great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault: effect of hypocentre location and comparison with empirical modelling. 4. By Sean Martin. The New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics has recently dedicated an entire issue to the South Island's Alpine Fault, which is now overdue a massive quake. One of the papers introduced Project AF8, a collaborative effort to save lives by preparing for a magnitude 8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault. June 18 at 11.32am. Sort by A-Z Z-A Geologists find fault in scientists' optimism on alpine quake risk. Together these sites revealed evidence of 27 Alpine Fault earthquakes over the last 8000 years! Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8) released a series of videos on Wednesday, warning there’s compelling geological evidence to show it produces a significant earthquake of magnitude eight or greater every 300 years on average. A massive earthquake fault running through New Zealand's south is overdue for a big shake that could block highways and leave thousands cut off, according to new research.. Recent research (published in 2012) by GNS Science has extended our knowledge of the Alpine fault earthquake record back through the past 8000 years. An Alpine Fault rupture could produce one of the most destructive earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand because of its geologic characteristics. He has led immediate earthquake response, was part of the Alpine Fault Drilling Project, run experiments on Southern Alps hot springs, and an Earthquake Hydrology project that demonstrates liquefaction damage during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes was exacerbated by leakage and release of groundwater from artesian aquifers. ''We are quite likely to experience this earthquake in our lifetimes.'' The spine of the South Island’s most significant earthquake risk, the Alpine Fault, runs right through the Wakatipu. The Alpine fault is under scrutiny at the moment with work underway to predict the next earthquake at the top of the South Island. Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. The 2020 New Zealand Earthquake (pronounced "TWENTY-TWENTY", also known as the Alpine Fault Quake and the 2020 South Island Quake) is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake that will occur on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island at 11:31 (local) on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. The Structural Geology of the Alpine Fault . NEW Zealand could be in store for a devastating earthquake in the coming years with two fault zones set to collide. [1] The Southern Alps have been uplifted on the fault over the last 12 million years in a series of earthquakes. The effect of fluid differentials on an Alpine Fault earthquake is obviously significant but presently unquantified. The 2012 paper suggests simply that fault zones are sites of high fluid pressure gradient, and that “dynamic pressurisation likely promotes earthquake slip.” Stage two of the deep-drilling programme is scheduled for 2014. The underlying philosophy is that if we plan for the extreme case, we certainly improve our ability to cope with less severe events (“expectthe worst, hope for the best”). Geologists don’t appear to be spooked by Mr Ring’s predictions. This fault has ruptured four times in the past 900 years, each time producing an earthquake of about magnitude 8. A new model has simulated the disruption a major Alpine Fault earthquake would have on the South Island's transport network - cutting off the West Coast for at least a week. The last time this happened was 301 years ago. PUBLISHED : 16:45, Thu, May 18, 2017 | … The second earthquake warning was for one along the Alpine Fault of New Zealand. Introduction: … Prior to this project, the ages of only the last four Alpine Fault earthquakes were well known. The fault runs hundreds of kilometres up the spine of the South Island, from Fiordland along the western edge of the Southern Alps. The 'Alpine Fault… At present, the response spectra from the Alpine fault can only be estimated from ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) based on local and overseas earthquake records. The fault is a strike-slip boundary in which the Australian Plate and the Pacific plate are moving horizontally past each other. 3 Appendix 1, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, Revised February 2012, M Trayes The Alpine Fault. The quake was 5 kilometres deep and the … Advanced Search. Consequential severe damage to lifelines, including the main transportation corridors, is also predicted. These resources cover the types of earthquakes, the Richter scale, prediction, fracking, and their impact and effect on the environment and society. These findings are entirely new for the Alpine Fault. The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717. SCIS no: 1838390 . Comment... From: Christchurch City Libraries. A masive earthquake has been predicted for nz alpine fault. Alpine Fault. Future Earthquake Predictions. "There's an inevitability about the next Alpine Fault earthquake," Dr Caroline Orchiston, a scientist and guest editor on the issue, told Breakfast. Source: 1 NEWS . The National Library and Alexander Turnbull Library are here to help you access and use the collective knowledge of New Zealand. Going back to earthquakes, this would mean that the Alpine fault would have to be similarly unstable. However, the plates are locked and when they overcome these barriers, they produce large but … It will be centred roughly 60km west of Queenstown, in the South Westland area. Canterbury University researchers disagree. Showing results 1-14 of 14 for Earthquake prediction, Southern Alps. It is known to produce magnitude 8 earthquakes approximately every 300 years. Seismologists say seismic activity is largely caused by tectonic plate activity. A magnitude 5.2 earthquake occurred 25 km north-west of Milford Sound, New Zealand on Fri Jun 12 2020 7:29 PM. At Hokuri Creek, an exposed outcrop enabled the scientists to identify layers deposited by Alpine Fault earthquakes. Istanbul is located in close proximity to the North Anatolian fault, a boundary between two major tectonic plates where devastating earthquakes occur frequently. The similarity of the modelled ground motion features with those observed in recent worldwide earthquakes as well as similar simulations in other regions, and the notably higher simulated amplitudes than those from empirical predictions, may warrant a re-examination of regional impact assessments for major Alpine Fault earthquakes. Front page photograph: The Alpine Fault at Inchbonnie – Hohonus and Taramakau River looking east [L.Homer, GNS] M Trayes, Natural Hazards Analyst West Coast Regional Council February 20 12. Where will the next earthquake centred on the Alpine Fault begin? ''The Alpine Fault is late in its earthquake cycle,'' Dr Toy says. Date: 2012 Description: Scientists at GNS Science say Alpine Fault may not generate an 8.0 magnitude quake for another 200 years. “Within 500kms” reaches as far up the North Island as Hamilton. “We can’t predict when an earthquake will hit but we can predict how strong the ground shaking will be at certain geographic locations,” Professor Brendon Bradley says. Scientists believe the Alpine Fault last ruptured in 1717 in a huge earthquake which generated about 8m of sideways movement, and uplifted the land by up to 2m along the fault. The original earthquake warning was extended thru July 2017 because of continuing strong precursor signals until it struck on July 17, 2017. June 18 at 11.32am. At present, the response spectra from a great scenario earthquake from the Alpine fault can only be estimated from ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) based on local and overseas earthquake records. Approximate rupture dates are 1717AD, 1620 AD, 1450 AD, and 1100 AD. The Alpine fault, one of the major fault systems in New Zealand, extends all through west coast with a high possibility of a rupture in the next 50 years, meaning that the next large earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to occur within our, or our children’s, lifetime. At John O'Groats, core samples showed layers similar to those found at Hokuri Creek. The quake hit the Alpine fault near New Zealand’s Auckland Islands. The Alpine Fault ruptures in a massive earthquake every 300 years, on average, and the last big one was in 1717. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island (c. 480 km) and forms the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. The Alpine Fault earthquake will be but one event of many different types of natural hazard events that will occur in New Zealand's future. What could an Alpine Fault earthquake feel like and how is world leading research in earthquake resilience helping us prepare? It is vital to understand that the AF8+ scenario is NOT A PREDICTION of what will happen during and after the next major earthquake (which may not be on the Alpine Fault). Now Nostradamus has a prediction of a great earthquake on cascadia fault near Vancouva usa between 18th June 2020 and 12th july due to planet alignment. The Canterbury Plains could suffer more damage in an Alpine Fault quake than some areas closer to the fault, say researchers - and it is not alone. The Alpine Fault runs almost the entire length of the South Island. Brendon Bradley, professor in earthquake engineering at the University of Canterbury, has created a computer simulation of the likely impact of a magnitude 8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault. This paper discusses simulated ground motion intensity, and its underlying modelling assumptions, for great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault. 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